摘要

分離運動是當今世界持續時間較長、影響范圍較廣的政治與社會運動。要真正理解分離運動的概念需要從源頭上著手，將分離主義視為次民族主義（族群主義），將分離運動視為民族主義運動的變種和民族國家建設的副產品。理解了這一前提，分離運動可以被定義為聚居于固有領土基礎上的少數族群（極個別情況下是主體族群）從民族國家退出以建立新的主權國家的政治與社會運動。正是在這個意義上可以認為，分離運動是民族國家建設尚未完成的表現。由于分離運動是否出現取決于國內政治，取決于國內群體間的關系，因而，本書只關注引發分離沖突的國內政治安排與精英行為。

本書從過程論分析、探尋分離運動的產生機制、發展脈絡和治理邏輯。分離運動的產生是國內斷裂型制度安排與族群政治組織化相結合的結果。當分離族群與主體族群之間在權力獲取、利益共享與權利機會三個維度同時存在矛盾，或者任意一項或兩項存在矛盾，且難以在現有政治框架內解決時，如果少數族群能夠有效地組織起分離活動家領導的族群政黨（準政黨、類政黨）并能夠持續地獲取資源和凝聚族群，建構少數族群的政治認同，這樣就會引起族群怨恨、不滿，宣揚內部殖民，組織起武裝叛亂、獨立公投等，導致分離運動的發生。國家制度安排決定分離運動的方式，通常有暴力與和平兩種形式。對于上述機制，重要的是如何測量斷裂型制度與族群政治組織化。從代表性、分配性、發展權三個問題歸納出權力獲取、利益共享、權利機會三個維度，考察制度的彌合與斷裂情況。對族群而言，政治組織化最為重要的表現形式是族群政黨（準政黨、類政黨），族群政黨本身就是離心型的，能夠為分離運動提供平臺、籌募資源、建構認同、協調行動。運用比較歷史分析的方法，本書在國家規模、區域地理、宗教信仰、經濟發展、政治體制、人口基數、族群語言、成敗與否、方式如何等最大相異的基礎上探求相同的形成機制，選擇了亞齊（印度尼西亞）、魁北克（加拿大）、南蘇丹（蘇丹）三個正面案例和作為負面案例的瑞士。正反案例的研究證實了相關假設。民族工程學為分離運動治理提供了解決思路。民族工程學要解決的問題包括兩大類：一是如何構建彌合型制度，解決權力獲取（代表性）、利益共享（分配性）、權利機會平等（發展權）問題；二是如何在各族群領導人之間提供政治激勵，在憲法框架下構建政治競爭與政治合作的可能與機會。

政治事件的發生是多種作用的結果，只是說，其中的某些機制和因素發揮了更大的影響。因而，這并不是一個必然性的判斷，而是說，斷裂型制度與高度的政治組織化有可能導致分離運動。

關鍵詞：分離運動；民族工程學；民族國家；斷裂型制度；族群政黨

Abstract

The secession movement is a political and social movement that lasts a long time and produces widespread influence in today's world.To truly understand the concept of secession movement,we need to get back to its source.Secessionism can be regarded as the sub-nationalism（ethnic nationalism）and secession movement is the variant of nationalist movement.The secession movement can be seen as the by product of nation-states.Having understood the background,this article defines secession movement as a political and social movement that minority ethnic groups who live on inherent territories（majority ethnic group in rare cases）withdraw from the existing nation-state to establish their own new sovereign state.It is in this sense that secession movement is an unfinished manifestation of nationstate building.Secession movement depends on domestic politics and the relationship between domestic groups,so this book only focuses on the domestic political arrangements and elites' behavior.

From the perspective of process theory analysis of secession movement,this book reveals the generation mechanism,development venation and governance logic of the movement.It can be found that the emergence of secession movement is the result of the combination of fractured institutional arrangement and ethnic political organization.When the secession group and the mainstream group have contradiction in any dimensions of power access,interest sharing and right-opportunity,and it's hard to solve within the framework of the existing political structure,ethnic hatred and resentment will be caused,internal colonialism will be promoted,armed rebellion and independence referendum will be organized,which leading to secession movement if minority ethnic group can effectively organize ethnic parties（quasi-party,similar party）leaded by secessionists,continue to acquire resources and agglomerate ethnic groups,and construct the political identity of ethnic minorities.State institutional arrangements determine the ways of secession movement.There are two normal forms,violence and peace.For these mechanisms,what matters is to measure the fractured institution and the political organization of ethnic parties.In order to investigate the situation of bridging or fractured institution,this book generalizes three dimensions of power access,interest sharing and right-opportunity from the three aspects of representativeness,distribution and development rights.For ethnic groups,the most important form of political organization is ethnic party（quasi-party,similar party）and in itself it is centrifugal.As to secession movement,the significance of organization construction lies in providing the platform,raising resources,constructing identification,coordinating action,etc..Using comparative historical analysis,by means of the Method of Agreement,it explored on the basis of the biggest differences in the size of the state,regional geography,religion,economic development,political system,population,ethnic languages,success or failure,different ways and so on to find the same generation mechanism.Aceh（Indonesia）,Quebec（Canada）,and South Sudan（Sudan）as positive cases and Switzerland as a negative case were selected.The study of positive and negative cases confirms the hypothesis proposed in this book.This book comes up with a solution of national engineering.The national engineering needs to solve two problems:one is how to build the bridging institution to solve the power access,interest sharing,right-opportunity;the other is how to provide political incentives among the leaders of differ ent ethnic groups so as to construct the possibility and opportunity of political competition and political cooperation under the constitution.

The occurrence of any political event is the result of various functions,but only some of them play a more influential role.This book is not a judgment of contingency,but a judgment of possibility,which means there would be a secession movement if there exists fractured institution and a high degree of organized political organization.

Key Words:Secession Movement; National Engineering; Nationstate;Fractured Institution;Ethnic Party