總結(jié)

不同于大多數(shù)現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論家用環(huán)境因素解釋大國的興衰，道義現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者將國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)視為贏得大國競爭的關(guān)鍵因素。該理論認(rèn)為，實(shí)行王道型領(lǐng)導(dǎo)以贏得國際支持是獲得國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的最重要方面，這比用物質(zhì)實(shí)力贏得軍事競爭更為關(guān)鍵。王道型領(lǐng)導(dǎo)需要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國在國內(nèi)和國際上都踐行王道規(guī)范，正如貝淡寧所指出的，這與軟實(shí)力或文化實(shí)力不同，因?yàn)樗且环N增強(qiáng)國家實(shí)力和國際穩(wěn)定的政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力。[38]盡管該理論提出了一個美好的愿景，但本書的撰稿者普遍質(zhì)疑它是否能夠在實(shí)踐中得以實(shí)現(xiàn)。

盡管本書的作者對道義在國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)中的重要性沒有異議，但他們在道義的構(gòu)成、如何評價道義以及與環(huán)境制約作用相比道義在多大程度上有重大影響等方面存在著分歧。盡管我承認(rèn)美德是道義的一個重要因素，但我仍然認(rèn)為將國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的道義視為責(zé)任而非美德會更為實(shí)際，因?yàn)椴环膰H領(lǐng)導(dǎo)是無政府體系的主要特征。在本書中，關(guān)于道義性質(zhì)的辯論揭示了現(xiàn)實(shí)主義與其他國際關(guān)系理論（如自由主義和建構(gòu)主義）之間在認(rèn)識論上的根本差異。目前，數(shù)字技術(shù)的進(jìn)步伴隨著民主在全球的衰落，這一事實(shí)提醒我們，科學(xué)研究國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的結(jié)論會比規(guī)范認(rèn)知更加符合殘酷的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

本書的目的不是就有關(guān)國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的理解達(dá)成共識，也不是為了尋找解決中美競爭領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的方案，而是為了激發(fā)讀者對相關(guān)議題的深入思考。在制度決定論仍然是最具影響力的思維方式的情況下，如果本書能夠促進(jìn)更多人研究國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，那將是一個重大的成就。從經(jīng)驗(yàn)實(shí)證分析的角度來看，我希望這本書能引發(fā)更多關(guān)于領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的研究，不論是由中國政府還是由美國政府提供的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)如今兩國政府共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。

注釋

[1] “WHO Director-General opening remarks at the Member State Briefing on the COVID-19 pandemic evaluation,” World Health Organization, July 9, 2020, https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-opening remarks-at-the-member-state-briefing-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-evaluation---9july-2020.

[2] Joseph S. Nye Jr, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.

[3] Robert Jervis, “Do Leaders Matter and How Would We Know?” Security Studies 22, no. 2 (2013): 153.

[4] Jared M. Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997.

[5] Charles P. Kindleberger, “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy:Exploitation, Public Goods, and Free Rides,” International Studies Quarterly 25,no. 2 (1981): 242–54; Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987.

[6] Oran Yang, “Political Leadership and Regime Formation: On the Development of Institutions in International Society,” International Organization 45, no. 3(1991): 285. 轉(zhuǎn)引自陳志敏、周國榮：《國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)與中國協(xié)進(jìn)型領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色的構(gòu)建》，《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治》，2017年第3期，第18頁。

[7] Joseph S. Nye Jr, The Powers to Lead, New York: Oxford University Press, 2008,p. 19.

[8] G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of International Leadership,” Political Science Quarterly 111, no. 3 (1996): 385.

[9] Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics, London:Macmillan, 1977.

[10] David A. Lake, “Regional Hierarchy: Authority and Local International Order,” Review of International Studies 35 (2009): 35–39.

[11] 陳志敏、周國榮：《國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)與中國協(xié)進(jìn)型領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色的構(gòu)建》，第21頁。

[12] 俞沂暄：《超越霸權(quán)：國際關(guān)系中領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的性質(zhì)及其觀念基礎(chǔ)》，《復(fù)旦國際關(guān)系評論》第27輯，上海：上海人民出版社，2020年版，第42頁。

[13] 常健、殷浩哲：《國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位新更替周期研究》，《復(fù)旦國際關(guān)系評論》第27輯，上海：上海人民出版社，2020年版，第21—22頁。

[14] Oran Yang, “Political Leadership and Regime Formation: On the Development of Institutions in International Society”.

[15] G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of International Leadership”: 388–396.

[16] Joseph S. Nye Jr, The Powers to Lead, p. 21.

[17] Ole R. Holsti, “The Political Psychology of International Politics: More than a Luxury,”Political Psychology 10, no. 3 (1989): 497.

[18] 尹繼武：《心理與國際關(guān)系：個體心理分析的理論與實(shí)踐》，《歐洲研究》，2004年第1期，第69頁。

[19] Ruth P. Morgan, “Reviewed Work(s): The Presidential Character: Predicting Perfor mance in the White House by James David Barber,” The Journal of Politics 37, no. 1(1975): 305.

[20] Margaret G. Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behaviour Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders,” International Studies Quarterly 24, no. 1(1980): 7–46.

[21] James David Barber, “The Promise of Political Psychology,” Political Psychology 11, no. 1 (1990): 183.

[22] 尹繼武：《心理與國際關(guān)系：個體心理分析的理論與實(shí)踐》，第78—79頁。

[23] Peter G. Northouse, Leadership: Theory and Practice, 7th Edition, California:SAGE Publications, Inc, 2015.

[24] Yang Qianru, “An Examination of the Research Theory of Pre-Qin Interstate Political Philosophy,” in Yan Xuetong, Daniel A. Bell and Sun Zhe (eds), Edmund Ryden (trans), Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 2011, p. 148.

[25] 閻學(xué)通：《世界權(quán)力的轉(zhuǎn)移：政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)與戰(zhàn)略競爭》，北京：北京大學(xué)出版社，2015年版，第180—182頁。

[26] Yan Xuetong, Daniel A. Bell and Sun Zhe (eds), Edmund Ryden (trans), Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011.

[27] 張鋒是第一個使用這個詞的人。參見Feng Zhang, “The Tsinghua Approach and the Inception of Chinese Theories of International Relations,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 5, No. 1 (Spring 2012): 73–102.

[28] 鳳凰大學(xué)問：《閻學(xué)通對話米爾斯海默：中國能否和平崛起？》，清華大學(xué)國際關(guān)系研究院，2013年12月9日，http://www.tuiir.tsinghua.edu.cn/info/1091/4203.htm。

[29] Svetlana Krivokhizh and Elena Soboleva, “The Past Serving the Present: Yan Xuetong’s Theory of Moral Realism and the Future of the Global Order,” World Economy and International Relations 61, no.11 (2017): 76, https://www.imemo.ru/en/publications/periodical/meimo /archive/2017/11-t-61/china-domestic-and-foreign-policies/the-past-serving-the-present-yan-xuetongs-theory-of-moral-realism-and-the-future-of-the-global-order.

[30] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019, p. 14.

[31] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 29.

[32] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 40.

[33] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 35.

[34] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 193.

[35] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, pp. 37—40.

[36] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, pp. 197—206.

[37] Kai He, “A Realist’s Ideal Pursuit,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 5,No.2 (Summer 2012): 183–97; Feng Zhang, “The Tsinghua Approach and the Inception of Chinese Theories of International Relations”; Mario Telò, “Building a Common Language in Pluralist International Relations Theories,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 13, no. 3 (Autumn 2020): 455–83.

[38] Daniel A. Bell, “Introduction,” in Yan Xuetong, Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, pp. 1–18.