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金融化對經濟增長的非線性影響研究^[1]

田新民 武曉婷^[2]

摘要：縱觀世界經濟發展演變的進程，金融化是伴隨市場經濟發展和金融深化的必然趨勢，具有普遍性和規律性。本文基于金融內生視角，構建最優金融化形成與經濟增長的動態機制，對最優金融化的動態特征、偏離穩態及恢復機制進行分析，并進一步通過構建一個綜合性的金融化指數，運用馬爾科夫區制轉移模型和門限回歸模型實證分析金融化對經濟增長影響的非線性特征，結果表明：（1）金融化對經濟增長具有明顯的“區制轉移”特征；（2）金融化對經濟增長存在明顯的“雙門限”效應。這兩種非線性模型都能較好地解釋近年來我國資金“脫實入虛”的現象。

關鍵詞：經濟金融化 經濟增長 非線性關聯性

中圖分類號：F832.5 文獻標識碼：A

Research on the Non-linear Effect of Financialization on Economic Growth

Tian Xinmin Wu Xiaoting

Abstract：Looking at the evolution of the world economy，financialization is an inevitable trend accompanied by the development of market economy and financial deepening. It has universality and regularity. From the financial endogenous perspective，this paper constructs a dynamic mechanism for optimal formation of financialization and economic growth，and analyzes the dynamic characteristics of optimal financialization，deviation from steady state and recovery mechanisms，and further builds a comprehensive financial index. Then applying MS model and TR model to empirically analyze the non-linear correlation between financialization and economic growth，the results show that：（1） The impact of financialization on economic growth has obvious “regional transfer” characteristics；（2） Financialization has obvious “double-threshold” effect on economic growth. Both of the two non-linear models can well explain the phenomenon of “shift from real economy to virtual economy” in our country in recent years.

Keywords：Financialization Economic Growth Non-linear Correlation