空間計量視角下的中國經濟收斂狀態分析

王西貝 馬薇^[1]

摘要：當前我國正處于經濟轉型時期，各地經濟發展狀態復雜，研究地區經濟發展收斂問題對促進地區持續協調發展具有重大戰略意義。本文基于空間計量視角考慮了我國經濟過程變化中的收斂問題，經過對全國31個省級面板2004～2016年的數據分析發現，全國經濟發展呈現顯著的空間相關性，通過構建空間滯后模型發現人均GDP不存在σ收斂，且地區間不存在絕對β收斂，考慮相對收斂情況發現僅有東部、中部地區存在收斂趨勢，東部地區收斂速度緩慢，內部出現分化，中部地區收斂趨勢顯著。本文探究性地使用空間杜賓模型對該問題進行研究，發現變量的空間影響將加速收斂趨勢。

關鍵詞：經濟收斂 空間面板滯后模型 空間杜賓模型 空間權重矩陣

中圖分類號：F821.0 文獻標識碼：A

The Analysis of Convergence of China’s Economy Based on Spatial Econometric Perspective

Wang Xibei Ma Wei

Abstract：At present，China’s economy is in the period of economic transformation，and the state of economic development in various regions tends to be more complex and changeable. The state of convergence of regional economic development has important strategic significance for the coordinated development of different regions. Based on the perspective of spatial，this paper discusses the convergence of economic process changes in China. Through the analysis of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016，the national economic development shows a significant spatial correlation. By constructing a spatial lag model，it is found that there has no σ convergence in China’s personal GDP. It is also founded that there is no absolute convergence of β between regions. Considering the relative convergence，only the eastern and central regions have convergence tendency. The eastern region has a slow convergence rate，it has a divergence trend，the central region convergence trend is significant. This paper explores the problem using the spatial Durbin model and finds that the spatial impact of the variables will accelerate the convergence trend.

Keywords：Economic Convergence Spatial Panel Lag Model Spatial Durbin Model Spatial Weight Matrix