摘要

摘要：當前，全球能源供給和需求格局正在發生變革，美國頁巖油氣革命改變了全球能源供應格局，歐美發達國家的煤炭、石油消費已達到峰值，其能源消費向清潔能源和可再生能源轉移的趨勢日益清晰。在新能源和可再生能源替代煤炭、石油等化石能源的過程中，各國電氣化程度將不斷提高，能源效率在減少能源消費中起著關鍵作用。同時，作為相對清潔的化石能源，天然氣在新一輪能源革命中作為過渡能源的作用愈加突出。作為全球最大的能源生產國和消費國，以及最大的清潔能源生產國，中國必將處于新一輪全球能源革命的核心位置。中國可借助于在可再生能源和清潔能源領域的產業鏈、投資和市場優勢，加快推進能源結構的低碳化、清潔化轉型，但也面臨著油氣資源不足、煤炭依賴度高、風電光伏并網不暢、技術創新障礙等問題的制約。

2017年，在原油需求強勁、產油國聯合減產和地緣政治風險上升等因素的共同作用下，國際石油市場出現明顯回溫。石油價格整體呈現先降后升的走勢，且在年末上升至自2015年以來的最高水平，而價格均值水平較上一年增長了約24%。2018年，國際原油價格繼續保持強勁上漲態勢。通過對影響油價走勢主要因素的分析可以看出，OPEC及其他產油國減產執行、全球經濟回暖所帶來的需求增速是推動本輪油價持續上行的主要因素；美國產油量、能源效率、能源結構調整是油價增速放緩的主要因素；非計劃的短期供給擾動以及金融市場投資是增大油價波動的主要因素；在供需收緊的狀態下，美元與本輪油價走勢呈現微弱的正相關性，卻無法撼動石油市場價格的走向。2019—2020年世界經濟的穩定增長將導致全球石油需求增長加速，但市場供給彈性空間較大，若減產執行失效，美國石油供給加速增長，則市場供需局面可能恢復到減產前的狀態，石油價格受挫下行，原油價格有可能下跌至60—70美元之間；而石油供給若能得到良好的控制，則預計可以維持石油生產國共同努力而來的市場供需收緊局面，原油價格將可能繼續保持穩步上漲，并漲至80—85美元/桶的水平。

2017年，中國原油需求繼續維持快速增長，原油需求增量達60萬桶/日，為2016年的兩倍，約占世界石油需求增量的40%，成為推動全球原油需求增長的重要力量。2017年，中國全年原油消費表觀消費量43億桶，較2016年增長5.9%；原油產量下滑至3.87百萬桶/日；石油凈進口量為29億桶，較2016年增長10.8%，石油對進口依存度已達到67.4%，上升4.7個百分點。展望2020年，預計中國原油產量仍有持續下降趨勢，原油需求將繼續保持增長，但增長速度將有所減緩，預計石油需求量增至1380萬桶/日。國內成品油市場格局向民營化傾斜，隨著國內石油產業基礎設施的完善，成品油產量將會進一步擴大。

2017年，全球天然氣市場供需均出現近七年以來的最大增幅，天然氣平均價格出現明顯的回彈，較2016年上漲超過20%。受歐洲和亞洲天然氣強勁的需求增長以及油價大幅上漲的影響，天然氣市場需求比上一年增長了2.9億立方米/日，增幅達3%。其中，LNG貿易增長幅度達10.3%，是推動天然氣貿易增長的主要因素。當前，電力用氣仍然在天然氣消費占比最高，為46.8%，其次是工業用氣，占比27.2%。預計未來數年，亞洲國家仍是天然氣需求增長的主力，工業生產將逐漸取代發電成為天然氣主要消費用途。同時，隨著LNG貿易比例的增長，全球天然氣定價將趨于競爭化發展，貿易形式和種類將趨于多樣化發展以滿足買賣雙方的市場需求。

受國內經濟增長強勁、空氣污染治理等因素推動，2017年中國天然氣消費量創歷史新高，增幅超過15%。國內天然氣產量保持8%以上的增長速度，但由于上游供給無法跟上下游需求的增長，國內天然氣生產—消費的缺口日益擴大，2017年冬季出現“氣荒”。預計未來數年，環保因素將持續推動能源轉型，國內天然氣需求將保持增長趨勢，中國將有望超過日本成為最大的LNG進口國。在2017年產量的基礎上，若中國天然氣產量保持10.6%的增速，則至2020年可能實現“十三五”規劃中2020億立方米的產量目標。

隨著全球能源轉型的加速和各國更為關注碳排放對環境的影響，煤炭行業受到了嚴重沖擊。近年來，全球煤炭生產、消費和貿易快速下降。2017年，煤炭消費結束了2014—2016年三年的連續下降，消費量達到37.3億噸，比2016年增加約1%。目前，煤炭的生產和消費主要集中在中國、美國和印度三個國家，而澳大利亞、印度尼西亞、俄羅斯是主要煤炭出口國。盡管2017年煤炭生產和消費有所反彈，但未來煤炭的前景依然不被看好。預計未來歐洲、加拿大、美國等發達國家和地區的煤炭消費需求會持續減少，煤炭消費的增長主要來自于發展中國家和地區，集中于印度和東南亞國家，消費東移趨勢明顯。根據國際能源署的預測，未來煤炭在全球能源結構中的份額將從2016年的27%降至2022年的26%。

煤炭是中國的主體燃料，也是重要的工業原料，在中國的能源生產和消費結構中居于主導地位。2017年，中國消費了18.9億噸油當量的煤炭，占全球煤炭消費的50.7%。未來，隨著中國能源轉型的繼續推進，煤炭去產能將會繼續執行，煤炭產業轉型將加速。我們預計在現行政策條件下，中國煤炭需求將在2020年左右基本進入高峰期，在2025年左右達到峰值（約21.0億噸油當量）；如果政策執行更為嚴厲，最早在2019年左右可能達到峰值（約18.9億噸油當量）。2020年，煤炭在我國能源消費中的比例將下降到60%以下，2030年進一步降至50%—52%。未來，對煤炭的替代主要在發電領域，核電、風電、光伏發電和生物質發電將會在其中發揮重要作用。

電力在經濟社會中的作用逐步增大，在全球能源體系中扮演著越來越關鍵的角色。目前，全球電力生產和消費持續增長，主要源自于中國、印度、巴西等新興市場國家電力需求的大幅增加。發達國家的電力生產和消費已經向可再生能源轉移，其電力消費在產業、居民用電、商業和公共服務用電等方面均衡發展，而發展中國家的電力消費則以產業用電為主。電力貿易業主要在歐美等發達國家間進行。盡管2017年電力投資略有下降，但仍然超過化石燃料，成為能源領域投資最大的行業。未來電力投資會繼續增加，電力將向數字化、減少貧困、分布式和清潔化方向發展。中國將重點發展清潔電力，水電、核電、風電、太陽能光伏發電、生物質發電和地熱發電將會逐步替代煤電。據預測，在現行政策下，2040年中國常規水電裝機容量將達3.9億千瓦；抽水蓄能達2億千瓦；核電的裝機容量將達1.65億千瓦，發電1287太瓦時，占全部發電量的11.2%。2020年、2030年和2050年，中國風電裝機容量將分別達2億、4億和10億千瓦；中國太陽能光伏發電裝機容量在2030年將達3.5億千瓦，在2040年達4.3億千瓦，在2050年達5.5億千瓦，約占發電量的12%—13%。

為了應對全球氣候變化，世界主要經濟體正在逐步調整能源結構，積極發展以光伏太陽能為代表的可再生能源和核能等清潔能源。從光伏產業來看，全球市場規模繼續擴大，但發達國家市場裝機增長趨緩，而發展中國家潛力巨大，光伏產業技術創新層出不窮，發電成本逐步降低。作為全球最大的光伏市場，中國光伏產業的市場容量和新增規模仍在持續擴大，分布式光伏成為市場發展的新亮點。世界主要能源研究機構對光伏發電前景都比較樂觀，并認為中國將對全球光伏太陽能的發展起到巨大的推動作用。核能是一種低排放、高效率的清潔能源，盡管福島核事故一度使人們對核電前景產生了疑慮，但核能因其在低碳減排方面的積極作用，正在重新引起不少國家的重視。全球核電機組數量穩中有升，核電在部分國家的電力來源中占有重要地位。從各國核電發展政策來看，美國對發展核能持積極的態度，歐洲各國對待核電的態度出現明顯分化，日本的核電政策面臨著巨大的挑戰，發展中國家對核能的興趣不減。隨著一些國家老化的核反應堆陸續退役，以及部分發達國家宣布逐漸退出核電，發展中國家將成為全球核能發展的主要推動力量，尤其是中國在未來全球核電發展中將起到關鍵作用。

海洋能形式多樣，儲量豐富，但勘探、開發和利用尚處初級階段。目前，世界海洋石油業發展較成熟，近年來全球重大油氣發現中的近50%來自深海地區。全球可燃冰總資源量約2100萬億立方米，但尚未進入商業化開采階段。海上風能資源豐富，經濟性優勢明顯，是最有可能大規模發展的能源之一，近年來海上風電裝機量以每年約30%的速度遞增。在其他形式的海洋能中，潮汐能發展相對成熟，預計到2030年世界潮汐電站年發電總量將達60太瓦時；波浪能、潮流能、鹽差能、溫差能均處于研發階段或商業化初期階段。中國海洋能開發利用進步顯著，但與國際先進水平還有差距。中國是世界海洋石油生產大國之一，在勘探開發、工程技術等領域居世界先進行列。在可燃冰領域，中國取得重大突破，成為首個在海域連續穩定產氣的國家。潮汐能技術實現了商業化開發利用，波浪能、潮流能技術進入了示范應用和商業化開發階段，溫差能和鹽差能技術研究取得了階段性成果。隨著海洋能相關政策的完善，中國海洋能開發利用將不斷取得新的突破。

關鍵詞：能源市場；世界；中國；回顧；展望

Abstract:The supply and demand of global energy are changing.The revolution in the shale oil and gas in United States has changed the pattern of global energy supply.Coal and oil consumption has reached the peak in developed countries in Europe and the United States.It is increasingly clear that the energy consumption will tend to clean energy and renewable energy.While replacing coal,oil and other fossil energy with new and renewable energy,the degree of electrification will be improved continually in various countries,and energy efficiency plays a key role in reducing energy consumption.At the same time,as a relatively clean fossil energy,natural gas plays an increasingly prominent role as a transitional energy in the new round of energy revolution.As the world's largest energy producer and consumer,as well as the largest producer of clean energy,China is bound to be at the core of a new round of global energy revolution.China will be able to accelerate the low-carbon and cleaning transformation of energy structure by virtue of the advantages of industrial chain,investment and market in renewable energy and clean energy.However,the transformation in China is also constrained by insufficient oil and gas resources,high dependence on coal,poor grid-connection of wind and photovoltaic power and obstacles to technological innovation.

The international oil market had a significantly turnaround in 2017 due to strong demand for crude oil,joint production reduction by oilproducing countries and rising geopolitical risks and other factors.Oil prices has increased after a decline,and reached the highest price since 2015 at the end of the year,while the average price increased by about 24% over the previous year.Oil prices have maintained strong growth momentum in 2018.After analyzing the main factors affecting the trend of oil prices,we can see that the production reduction by OPEC and other oil-producing countries and demand growth caused by the global economic recovery are the main factors to drive the sustained upward trend of oil prices.The adjustment of oil production,energy efficiency and energy structure in United States are the main factors that slow down the growth of oil price.Unplanned short-term supply disruption and investment in financial market are the main factors that accelerate the fluctuation of oil price.With the tight supply and demand,the US dollar has weak positive correlation with the current trend of oil price,and cannot change the trend.The stability of world economic growth in 2019-2020 will lead to the increasing growth of global oil demand.However,the market supply is significantly flexible.If the production reduction fails and oil supply of United States accelerates,the supply and demand in the market may return to the original state before production reduction and the oil prices will fall.Then,the price of crude oil may fall between $60/barrel and $70/barrel.If the supply of oil is well controlled,it is expected that the tight supply and demand created by joint efforts of oil-producing countries will be maintained,and the price of crude oil will probably continue to rise steadily to $80/barrel and $85/barrel.

The demand for crude oil in China continued to grow rapidly in 2017,with an increase of 600,000 barrels per day,twice that of the previous year and accounting for about 40% of the growth of world's oil demand.Thus,China becomes an important driving force for the growth of global demand for crude oil.The total apparent consumption of crude oil in China was 4.3 billion barrels in 2017,an increase of 5.9% over the previous year.The production of crude oil dropped to 3.87 million barrels per day.The net oil imports were 2.9 billion barrels,an increase of 10.8% over the previous year.The oil dependence on imports reached 67.4%,an increase of 4.7%.The production of crude oil in China is expected to continue to decline as of 2020,and the demand for crude oil will continue to increase.However,the growth rate will slow down,and oil demand is expected to increase to 13.8 million barrels per day.More private enterprises may enter the domestic market of oil products.With the improvement of infrastructure in domestic oil industry,the production of oil products will be further increased.

Both supply and demand in the global natural gas market showed the largest increase in nearly seven years in 2017,and the average price of natural gas showed a significant rebound,rising more than 20% over the previous year.The demand for natural gas increased by 290 million m3/day,and 3% over the previous year,as a result of strong demand for natural gas in Europe and Asia and soaring oil prices.Among them,the growth rate of LNG trade reached 10.3%,which is the main factor driving the growth of natural gas trade.At present,the gas used by power still accounts for 46.8% of natural gas consumption,which is the highest proportion.It is followed by industrial gas,accounting for 27.2%.It is expected that Asian countries will continue to be the main driving force of demand for natural gas in the coming years,and industrial production will gradually replace electricity generation as the main consumption of natural gas.At the same time,with the increased proportion of LNG trade,the pricing of global natural gas will be determined by competition.The forms and types of trade will tend to diversify to meet the market demand of buyers and sellers.

Due to the strong economic growth in domestic and air pollution control,the natural gas consumption in China reached a record high in 2017,an increase of more than 15%.Domestic natural gas production has maintained a growth rate of more than 8%.However,the production-consumption gap of natural gas in domestic is increasing and the winter in 2017 showed gas shortage,because the upstream supply cannot keep up with the downstream demand growth.China is expected to surpass Japan as the largest LNG importer in the coming years as environmental factors continue to drive energy transformation and domestic demand for natural gas continues to grow.On the basis of production in 2017,the production target of 202 billion m3in the 13th Five-Year Plan may be achieved by 2020if natural gas production keeps increasing by 10.6%.

With the acceleration of global energy transformation and more attention paid to the impact of carbon emissions on the environment,the coal industry has been seriouslyaffected.In recent years,global coal production,consumption and trade have declined rapidly.The threeyear decline coal consumption of from 2014 to 2016 ended in 2017,with consumption reaching 3.73 billion tons and an increase of about 1% over 2016.At present,coal production and consumption are mainly achieved by China,the United States and India,while Australia,Indonesia and Russia are the main coal exporters.Although coal production and consumption rebounded in 2017,the prospect of coal in the future is still not optimistic.It is expected that the demand for coal consumption in Europe,Canada,the United States and other developed countries will continue to decrease in the future.The growth of coal consumption will be mainly driven by developing countries,such as India and Southeast Asian countries.The consumption will be increasingly dependent on eastern countries.According to the forecast by International Energy Agency（IEA）,the proportion of coal in the global energy structure will fall from 27%（in 2016）to 26% in 2022.

As the main fuel and important industrial raw material in China,coal plays a leading role in energy production and consumption structure.China consumed 1.89 billion tons of oil equivalent coal in 2017，accounting for 50.7% of global coal consumption.With continuous promotion of China's energy transformation,the capacity of coal will be reduced continually and the transformation of coal industry will accelerate.Based on the current policy,the coal demand of China will basically enter a peak phase around 2020,and reach the peak around 2025（about 2.1 billion tons of oil equivalent）.If the policy is more stringent,the coal demand may reach the peak around 2019（about 1.89 billion tons of oil equivalent）.By 2020,the proportion of coal in China's energy consumption will be reduced to less than 60%,and further to 50%-52% by 2030.In the future,the coals will be replaced mainly in power generation,in which nuclear power,wind power,photovoltaic power and biomass power generation will play an important role.

Electric power plays a more and more important role in the global energy system.At present,the global production and consumption of electric power is growing continuously,mainly due to the dramatic increase in electric power demand in emerging market countries such as China,India and Brazil.The production and consumption of electric power in developed countries have transformed to renewable energy sources.The consumption of electric power in developed countries has achieved in a balanced way in terms of industry,residential electricity,commercial and public services,while consumption of electric power in developing countries is mainly achieved by industry.The trade of electric power is mainly carried out in developed countries such as Europe and the United States.Although the investment in electric power declined slightly in 2017,it still surpassed fossil fuels as the largest sector of energy investment.In the future,the investment in electric power will continue to increase,and the electric power will enter in digital,poverty-reduction,distributed and clean development.China will focus on the development of clean electric power,and the hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,solar photovoltaic power,biomass power and geothermal power will gradually replace the coal power.It is predicted that by 2040,the conventional hydropower installed capacity in China will reach 390 million kilowatts under the current policy.The pumped storage will reach 200 million kilowatts.The installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 165 million kilowatts,generating 1,287 terawatt-hours and accounting for 11.2% of the total generation capacity.The installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 200 million,400 million and 1 billion kilowatts,respectively in 2020,2030 and 2050.The installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power in China will reach 350 million,430 million and 550 million kilowatts,respectively in 2030,2040 and 2050,accounting for about 12%-13% of electric power generation.

In order to cope with global climate change,the world's major economies are gradually adjusting the energy structure and actively developing renewable energy and clean energy such as nuclear energy and photovoltaic solar energy.In terms of photovoltaic industry,the global market scale continues to expand,but the growth of installed capacity in developed countries is slowing down.On the other hand,the photovoltaic industry has great potential in developing countries.The technological innovation of photovoltaic industry emerges in endlessly and the power generation costs are gradually reduced.As the world's largest photovoltaic market,the photovoltaic industry of China is still expanding market capacity and scale,and the distributed photovoltaic projects have become a new bright spot of development.The world's major energy research institutions are optimistic about the prospect of photovoltaic power generation,and believe that China will play an important role in promoting the development of photovoltaic solar energy world wide.Nuclear energy is a kind of clean energy with low emission and high efficiency.Although the prospect of nuclear power was questionable once due to the Fukushima nuclear accident,many countries are paying attention to it because of its positive role in reducing carbon emissions.The number of nuclear power generation units worldwide has steadily increased,and nuclear power plays an important role in power sources of some countries.In terms of development policies of nuclear power,the United States has a positive attitude towards the development of nuclear energy.The European countries have diversified attitude towards the nuclear power.The policy of nuclear power in Japan is facing enormous challenges,and developing countries are still paying much attention to the nuclear energy.With the gradual decommissioning of aging nuclear reactors in some countries and the gradual withdrawal of some developed countries from nuclear power,developing countries will become the main driving force for global development of nuclear energy,especially China,which will play a key role in the future.

Ocean energy has various forms and abundant reserves,but the exploration,development and utilization are in the initial stage.At present,the offshore oil industry in the world is relatively mature.In recent years,nearly 50% of the world's major oil and gas discoveries come from deep water.The total combustible ice in the world is about 2100 trillion m3,but it has not yet realized the commercial exploitation.With abundant offshore wind energy resources and obvious economic advantages,offshore wind power is one of the most likely energy sources for large-scale development.In recent years,the installed capacity of offshore wind power has increased by about 30% per year.Among other forms of ocean energy,tidal energy is relatively mature,and it is expected that the total annual power generation of tidal power stations in the world will reach 60 terawatt-hours by 2030.Wave energy,tidal-current energy,salinity gradient energy and temperature difference energy remain in the early stage of development or commercialization.The development and utilization of ocean energy in China have made remarkable progress,but there is still a gap with the-world advanced level.China is one of the largest offshore oil producing countries in the world,ranking among the world's advanced countries in exploration,development,engineering technology and other fields.China has made significant breakthroughs in combustible ice and become the first country to continuously and steadily produce gas in the sea area.Tidal energy technology has been commercially developed and utilized.The technology of wave energy and tidal-current energy has achieved demonstration application and commercialized development.The research on technology of thermal energy and osmotic energy has made staged achievements.With the improvement of ocean energy related policies,the development and utilization of ocean energy in China will continue to make new breakthroughs.

Key Words:Energy Market,World,China,Retrospect,Outlook