摘要

摘要：此次中美貿(mào)易摩擦是美國從戰(zhàn)略上遏制中國的集中表現(xiàn)，同20世紀80年代美日貿(mào)易摩擦，既有相同之處，又有顯著差異。相同之處在于，都屬于守成大國對新興崛起大國的天然壓制，且守成大國對新興崛起大國都存在巨額的貿(mào)易逆差。然而，與美日貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)不同的是，中美存在根本的意識形態(tài)分歧，并且中國在諸多經(jīng)濟指標方面緊追美國，因此，美國挑起對華貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)不僅僅是經(jīng)貿(mào)利益的爭奪，更是美國冷戰(zhàn)思維的蔓延和全面打壓中國的第一步，未來貿(mào)易摩擦與爭端將持久而嚴峻。中美之間技術差距不斷縮小導致美國對中國高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生恐慌，也是此次爭端中美方特別關注技術轉移的原因。中國的科技實力迅速提高，而美國技術進步則逐漸放緩，特別是領先技術的發(fā)明愈發(fā)困難，中美之間的技術差距不斷縮小，這導致美國對中國高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生恐慌。此次貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是在逆全球化盛行、貿(mào)易保護主義抬頭的背景下爆發(fā)的。中國長期以來已經(jīng)成為貿(mào)易保護主義打擊的重要對象，遭受了來自各國的嚴重的非關稅貿(mào)易壁壘。美國不僅對中國發(fā)起貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，還對歐盟、加拿大、墨西哥等盟友挑起貿(mào)易摩擦。因此，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是在逆全球化背景下，美國試圖改變現(xiàn)行多邊貿(mào)易體系的運行方式、重構國際經(jīng)貿(mào)規(guī)則的重要手段。

如果中美貿(mào)易摩擦限定在500億美元商品范圍內(nèi)，對中國的出口、經(jīng)濟增長和社會福利影響有限；限定在2500億美元商品范圍內(nèi)，風險可控；但隨著貿(mào)易摩擦加劇，中國的福利損失會不斷增加，極端情況下負面影響將十分嚴重，因此要防止貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級。即使美國和歐盟達成零關稅協(xié)議，對中國的進出口、經(jīng)濟增長和社會福利的影響也十分有限；而對美國的福利狀況會產(chǎn)生一定改善。技術進步是扭轉外部環(huán)境不利因素的重要力量，當技術提升達到一定程度時，中國的社會福利和GDP將大幅度上升，且會對美國造成負面沖擊。美國挑起的貿(mào)易摩擦直接加劇了中國經(jīng)濟的不確定性，使投資者對中國市場信心下降，導致了一段時間內(nèi)人民幣快速貶值和資本異動。跨境資本流動尚處于比較平穩(wěn)的水平，盡管短期內(nèi)匯率出現(xiàn)了異動，但是尚未引起資金的大規(guī)模跨境轉移。美國可以通過多種途徑將貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)向金融領域擴展，中國可能將因此而發(fā)生更為嚴重的金融風險。美國2018年8月初通過的外國投資審查法案改革措施將增加中國對美投資的難度與不確定性，在中美戰(zhàn)略競爭和貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的大背景下，中國對美正常商業(yè)投資可能面臨更嚴重的泛政治化阻撓，相對于審查結果，新法案更重要的影響在于對交易各方的心理沖擊，這可能會繼續(xù)導致中國對美投資規(guī)模的大幅減少。

在應對貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的過程中，要本著“堅守底線、消除誤解、正視問題”的原則，妥善解決不同性質(zhì)的分歧與沖突。貿(mào)易摩擦可以成為中國深化改革開放的外部推動力量，中國各界要審視自身存在的問題，進一步深化改革、擴大開放。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)極有可能引發(fā)國際經(jīng)貿(mào)規(guī)則加速重構，中國要堅持多邊原則，爭取對自身有利的重構方案，不斷提升國際話語權。發(fā)生不利的外部沖擊時，國內(nèi)各界信心非常重要，中國要探索穩(wěn)定信心的方案與策略。科技實力是立國之本，中國未來要加大科技研發(fā)投入，提高研發(fā)水平和效率，產(chǎn)出原創(chuàng)性領先技術。

關鍵詞：中美貿(mào)易摩擦；外部環(huán)境；深化改革開放；技術創(chuàng)新

Abstract:This trade war is a concentrated manifestation of the United States strategically containing China.It has similarities and significant differences with the US-Japan trade frictions in the 1980 s.The similarity lies in the fact that all of them are the natural suppression of the emerging powers by the established big power,and the established big power has huge trade deficits with emerging powers.However,unlike the US-Japan trade war,there are fundamental ideological differences between China and the United States,and China is closely following the United States in many economic indicators.Therefore,the United States has provoked a trade war against China not only for economic and trade interests,but for the spread of the US Cold War mentality and taking the first step in an overall suppression of China,and the future trade frictions and disputes will be lasting and severe.The narrowing of the technological gap between China and the United States has caused the United States to panic about the development of China's high-tech industry,which is the reason why the US has paid special attention to technology transfer in this dispute.China's technological strength has rapidly increased,while US technological progress has gradually slowed down,and more importantly,the invention of leading technologies has become increasingly difficult.The technological gap between China and the United States has been shrinking,which has led to the US panic about the development of China's high-tech industry.The trade war broke out in the context of the prevalence of anti-globalization and the rise of trade protectionism.China has long been an important target of trade protectionism and has suffered from serious nontariff trade barriers from various countries.The United States not only has launched a trade war against China,but also has provoked trade frictions against allies such as the European Union,Canada,and Mexico.Therefore,the trade war is an important means for the United States to change the way the current multilateral trading system operates and to reconstruct international economic and trade rules in the context of counter-globalization.

If Sino-US trade friction is limited to $50 billion of goods,it has limited impacts on China's exports,economic growth and social welfare,and to $250 billion of goods,the risk is still controllable.However,as the trade friction escalates,China's welfare losses will continue to increase.In an extreme case,the negative impacts will be very serious,so it is necessary to prevent the trade war from escalating.Even if the United States and the EU reach a zero-tar iff agreement,the impacts on China's imports and exports,economic growth and social welfare are very limited,while the welfare situation in the United States will be improved.Technological progress is an important force to reverse the unfavorable factors of the external environment.When the technological advancement reaches a certain level,China's social welfare and GDP will rise sharply and will have negative impacts on the United States.The trade war provoked by the United States directly aggravates the uncertainty of the Chinese economy and causes investors'confidence in the Chinese market to decline,leading to the recent rapid depreciation of the RMB and capital movements.Cross-border capital flows are still at a relatively stable level,though the exchange rate has changed in the short term,it has not caused large-scale cross-border transfer of capital.The United States can expand the trade war to the financial sector through various channels,and China may have even more serious financial risks.The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act passed by the United States will increase the difficulty and uncertainty of China's investment in the United States.Under the background of China-US strategic competition and trade wars,China's normal business investment in the United States may face more serious political obstruction.Relative to the results of the review,the most important impact of the new bill is the psychological impact on all parties to the transaction,which may continue to lead to a significant reduction in the size of China's investment in the United States.

In the process of dealing with the trade war,we must properly resolve differences and conflicts of different natures in line with the principle of“holding the bottom line,eliminating misunderstandings,and facing problems”.The trade war can become an external driving force for China to deepen reform and opening up.All lines of work in China must examine their own problems and deepen reform and expand opening up in the future.The trade war is very likely to trigger the accelerated restructuring of international economic and trade rules,China must adhere to multilateral principles,strive for a reconciliation plan that is beneficial to itself,and continuously enhance the international discourse power.When adverse external shocks occur,confidence in all sectors of the country is very important,China needs to explore solutions and strategies to stabilize confidence.The strength of science and technology is the foundation of the country,China should increase investment in science and technology R&D in the future,improve the lev el of R&D and efficiency,and produce original leading technology.

Key Words:Trade Friction between U.S.and China; External Environment; Deepening Reform and Opening up; Technological Innovation