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第4章 Foreign Exchange Market (3)

文學和歷史一樣,飽含了前人留下的寶貴經驗和才智。鑒于此,為什么不把這些寶貴資源充分汲取呢?小說所涵蓋的主題是不受任何限制的。厄內斯特·海明威的小說的內容能激發人們的靈感。奧斯卡·王爾德會提供十分獨到的、精辟的商業建議。亨利·大衛·梭羅則是教人自助自立的大師級作家。這些書能夠提供的原理古今通用,不僅促進個人發展,而且還能幫助你創造財富。

● 管理學

老板們的一個通病,就是不知道如何管理好自己的員工。如果想要經營一門生意,你必須能高效高速地處理問題。當你對管理的理念有所了解,又掌握了多種應對方法和技巧之后,你這個老板就會變得人見人愛,而且還能賺到更多的錢。

核心單詞

downright [5daJnrait] adv. 完全地,徹底地

accounting [E5kauntiN] n. 會計;會計學

inventory [5invEntri] n. 存貨清單;存貨盤存

emanate [5emEneit] v. 發源

財經知識一點通

信用危機 (credit crisis)

信用危機的主要表現是:商業信用和銀行信用遭到破壞,大批銀行倒閉,商業信用需要減少,借貸資本的需要大大超過供給,利息率急劇上升。

現金流(cash flow)

一般是針對企業而言的,所以現金流是指某一段時間內企業現金流入和流出的數量,比如企業銷售商品、提供勞務、出售固定資產、向銀行借款、上市等都會取得現金,形成現金流入;購買原料、支付工資、構建固定資產、對外投資、償還債務等都需要支付現金,從而形成企業的現金流出。

翻譯行不行

Is it common knowledge that school doesn’t prepare you well for the real world?

Too often,products fail because their creators didn’t bother to learn whether a market existed for that product.

If you want to own and run a business,you need to manage that business effectively and efficiently.

第一章 Reflation And How To Exploit It

如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利

The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn’t stuffing money in a mattress,it’s the reflation trade—the bet that the world economy will rebound,driving up interest rates and commodities prices.

Even though the economy continues to struggle,investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.

They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.

“Between the bailouts and the stimulus,it’s pretty clear that we’re going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess,”says Roger Ibbotson,founder of Ibbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says,“It may not show up for another two years,after that I think it’s quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that.”

Shawn Rubin,an adviser at Smith Barney in New York,has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.

One way is to use options,where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. “While in the short run such trades may not work,it’s a long-term move,”Mr. Rubin says.“You should buy insurance when it’s cheap.”

And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday—the common definition of the return to a bull market,though they promptly fell again Friday—most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.

But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.

On top of that,there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.

Paul Kasriel,director of economic research at Northern Trust,says “the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation,” he adds.

Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a “survivor bias”. That means“looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing”even if demand doesn’t recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.

Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That’s clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February,five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices,now that’s swung around to a 1.35% increase.

“The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small,but the direction tells the tale,”says John Hollyer,a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.

“The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there’s a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation,”he says.

就市場而言,最近談的最多的投資策略并不是尋求避險,而是通貨再膨脹交易——下注全球經濟將復蘇,從而推高利率水平和大宗商品價格。

即便目前經濟仍然走勢蹣跚,投資者卻具有前瞻性地看到了各國央行和政府的大規模救助舉措發揮作用的時刻。

他們重點關注原材料和大宗商品相關類股,這些類股可能會從基礎設施支出的飆升中受益。他們還期望從生產瓶頸中獲利,生產瓶頸會推高價格和企業利潤。

伊博森伙伴咨詢公司創始人、對沖基金公司斑馬資本管理有限公司董事長伊博森說,“在諸多救助計劃和刺激計劃中,很明顯我們走出經濟危機的時候會出現一些通貨膨脹。”他說,“或許這種情況兩年之內不會出現,但我認為在兩年之后,很有可能出現,我覺得你們應該針對這種情況設置一個投資組合。”

史密斯·邦尼公司駐紐約顧問肖恩·魯賓已經將一些客戶的部分投資轉移至自然資源類股,同時使用策略應對通貨膨脹上升的風險。

期權是一種手段,投資者可以使用相對較少的資金,建立頭寸應對國債價格大幅下挫或金價上漲將近一倍的情況。如果出現這種情況,他們就能從中獲利。魯賓說,“盡管此類交易短期可能不會奏效,這是一個長期性舉措。你得趁成本低廉的時候就采取防范性措施。”

盡管在近期漲勢的推動下,截至上周四美國股市較低點回升了20%──達到了通常的牛市回歸標準,不過上周五再次急劇下滑──但多數投資者仍認為明年會遭遇更為困難的環境。

不過,美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed,簡稱:美聯儲)已經采取許多重大舉措重振經濟,穩定金融體系。美聯儲已經將利率下調到實際為零的水平,并正在逐步向信貸市場注入超過2萬億美元。

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