在2013年的“‘中國經濟前沿’叢書”的引言中我們曾提到,當下中國經濟政策和結構的全面深刻轉型代表了中國經濟增長的新模式(Garnaut et al.,2013a)。那一冊的題目為“中國:經濟增長與發展的新模式”。
這個新模式同時涉及傳統的經濟學和制度學層面。蔡昉、宋立剛和我在2013年(Garnaut et al.,2013b)以及Huang等(2013)的Debating the Lewis turning point in China從經濟學視角進行了分析討論,Dwight Perkins等(2013)則對制度學層面的變化進行了探究。
改革期間,這種總支出中的高投資比被中國政府應對國外大規模的經濟衰退的相關政策強化。第一波在1997年到1999年亞洲經濟危機期間(McLeod and Garnaut,1998),面對西太平洋貿易伙伴貨幣的普遍貶值,中國政府選擇了穩定人民幣對美元匯率水平。為了在出口增長率和凈出口下行趨勢下維持一個較為合理的經濟產出增長率、就業率以及收入水平,當局采取了規模更大的凱恩斯主義貨幣和財政擴張政策。第二波起于2008年的全球經濟危機。此次經濟危機對于中國的直接影響要比亞洲經濟危機更為廣泛,并且潛在的波動性更強。中國政府采取的應對措施仍舊是穩定匯率,采取大規模貨幣和財政擴張政策來穩定產出和就業。2008~2009年的財政和貨幣擴張力度比亞洲金融危機期間要大得多。
成功的發展帶來的經濟壓力主要源于在人們從農村地區到城鎮地區工作的勞動力流動過程中工資水平的普遍提高(Cai 2010;Garnaut 2010;Garnaut and Song 2006;Huang and Cai 2013;Huang and Jiang 2010)。從農村到城鎮的人口流動降低了對于農業資源的壓力,提高了農村地區的物質生活水平。中國早期快速經濟發展之后仍留在農村的人們相對來說能在當地找到更好的機會,因此要讓他們如前人一樣遷移至城鎮就需要更大的經濟激勵。因此,經濟發展的成果被政府以轉移支付的方式再分配到了農村居民和農村的公共服務如公共健康、教育、通信和交通等,以及足以吸引人口流動的城鎮工資。長期以來生育率低于勞動力替代率造成進入勞動力市場的勞動力數量逐年降低。而城鎮勞動力需求的持續穩定增長提高了對于穩定工資水平的需求(Huang et al.2013)。
在全球金融危機之后,對區域性環境影響的擔憂已經喚起了很多的改變措施。在中國東部和北方地區,空氣中過量微小碳排放顆粒的危險性已經推動了關于這些顆粒對健康影響的科學研究,并且受到越來越多大眾媒體的關注(Chen et al.2013)。早在2013年上半年這就已經成為民眾關注的要點(Chai 2015),也成為推動降低經濟活動中的能源密集程度和居民用煤量的政策制定的獨立而強大的驅動力。
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